Archive for December 17th, 2008

Week 16 NFL Picks

Can Carolina run past the Giants this week?  Photo from the AP.

Can Carolina run past the Giants this week? Photo from the AP.

Last week was not one of my best weeks but it wasn’t as dire as I thought it was initially.  10-6 is not so bad…I got lucky with some last second scores, what up SD and Pitt?, so I sat a little prettier than I thought.  Still, we need to do better and try to finish the year strong!

Indy over Jax: While Jax is coming off a surprising win over GB last week (and one of my losses, not that I’m bitter or anything), they’re still not playing that will.  Indy let Detroit hang around longer than was comfortable for your faithful forecaster, but they held on to win.  Manning’s back to being Manning and there’s no reason to think he’ll lose to the depleted Jaguars.

Dallas over Baltimore: Not what I need to happen at all but the implosion in Big D seems to have been staid off somehow.  Very disappointing.  I want TO sulking and Romo and Witten laughing and then maybe TO running up and punching Witten…sigh.  This game could go either way and I frankly hope it does go the other way but I don’t trust Baltimore to be able to shut down Dallas enough.  Hope I’m wrong!

Cincy over Cleveland: Whoo hoo, could the Bengals actually go on a winning streak?  It looks good, what with playing the immortal Ken Dorsey and the Browns this week.  Hmm, that sounds like a band name…any drummers and guitarists out there need it?   I think the state of Ohio should get a refund for pretty much all their pro teams…I guess LeBron and the Cavs are good but who else really is?  And no, I don’t follow hockey so if I missed that, sorry.

San Fran over St. Louis: The 9ers gave it a valiant effort against Miami but came up a little shy.  The Rams are nowhere near as good as Miami…I really can’t believe I typed that sentence and it’s not sarcasm.  I still don’t know where the Dolphins came from.  Well that’s a convo for another game isn’t it?  The Rams let a lead against Seattle slip slide away and I really don’t think they care anymore.  I still thing Singletary is awesome so he gets the win.

New Orleans over Detroit: Ha!  Drew Brees against the Detroit defense.  I really kinda love it.  I think Manning had 300 yards or thereabouts against them, no reason to think Brees won’t do the same thing.  The Saints D isn’t much to write home about but even they should be able to stop Detroit.  0-15 boys…you can do it!

Pittsburgh over Tennessee: I couldn’t be more torn over a pick if I tried.  Pitt is coming off another last second win and Tenn is coming off a bad coaching decision loss.  Haynesworth is going to be out I believe, so that’s a minus for Tenn.  I think this will be another gut punch low scoring game but Pitt will pull one out.  They’re quickly becoming my favorite in the AFC.

Miami over KC: This will probably be the week that KC manages to hold on to a lead and take the wind out of my sails, but I’ve picked against Miami enough this season to have finally learned my lesson.  The Dolphins are apparently a good team.  I can’t figure out why, but they are.  Parcells is magic and right is wrong and black is white.  Whatever.  I can’t believe they’re going to the playoffs.  What a strange year.

NE over Arizona: I am torn here but if Arizona taught me nothing else last week, they’ve taught me that if they’re playing a decent team they are going to find a way to lose.  I don’t know how good NE is but they are decent in my eyes.  Cassel seems to get better weekly.  I worry about the Pats secondary against Boldin and Fitzgerald but Warner is probably good for a few turnovers that could turn the game.  This could be a fun one, I hope I get it.

Tampa Bay over San Diego: This pick scares me, but I think the Bucs will pull it together and get it done.  San Diego is a roller coaster of a team and they had an up last week so I’m counting on a down this week.  The Bucs have got to stop the run but Tomlinson really hasn’t been Tomlinson this year so I’m not as scared of him as I would have been in years prior.  I reserve the right to change this pick if the Bucs injury bug keeps Hovan and Garcia and Brooks out, however.

Houston over Oakland: Look what team suddenly came to life!  Houston has won several games in the late going and has been in the games they’ve lost too.  I can’t help but feel that naming the DT award after Sage has ignited them and made them strive to do better.  That and having Sage safely on the bench…but I’ll take the credit anyway.  I think Oakland just exists to give me the hope that vampires might be real (hot vampires though, not Al Davis ones). Er, for some real football commentary, Andre Johnson is on fire this year, nice to see him playing so well.

Denver over Buffalo: I still don’t have Denver figured out but Buffalo is pretty easy to put a finger on.  They really kinda suck.  And JP Losman…well he is the reigning DT of the week, so we’ll see if we can get our first consecutive award winner here.  Why not?  Denver’s D still leaves a lot to be desired but Cutler is playing well right now and that offense can be quite potent.

NY Jets over Seattle: I know the Jets have a crappy record on the west coast but I’m betting they will take this game.  Seattle had to fight tooth and nail to beat the Rams last week, so that doesn’t inspire me as to their ability to beat a decent team.  As long as Favre doesn’t have a zillion turnovers (which is never a safe bet) the Jets should take this.  Oh, and give Leon Washington the ball some more will ya?  He’s been making plays happen all year long.

Minnesota over Atlanta: Man this is a tough one to pick.  Atlanta could easily take the win, but you know what?  I need them to lose so that’s why I’m making this pick.  I won’t lie about it…they’re a great story but my Bucs need this, so that’s the way I go.  Minny put on a show in Arizona last week and I figure in the comfort of home they can pull out a close one.  Winfield needs to pick off Ryan once or twice to help the cause.

Philly over Washington: As you all know, I jumped off the Skins bandwagon weeks ago.  I haven’t been impressed with them in weeks really.  I don’t know what it is about that team but they just don’t seem to have the special “it” that other teams do.  Portis is crying and carrying on, Jason Campbell is just an okay qb, Santana Moss has been relatively quiet…nothing stands out about them.  Philly, meanwhile, perhaps reacting to my scorn, has decided to start winning again.  Their blitz schemes have really been confusing their opponents and Donovan seems to have his act together for now.  Philly gets the win.

Carolina over NY Giants: Ugh…I so do not like making this pick but Carolina has looked like world beaters two weeks in a row and the Giants have not.  If the Giants get a few players back I might be tempted to change this pick, but right now I just feel that Carolina is playing better.  I’m hoping this is one of the games I get wrong this week, I’ll happily take that.  This is another good match up though.

Chicago over Green Bay: I give up on Green Bay, I’ve obviously overvalued that team most of the year.  I’ll have to go back and see just how many picks they cost me.  As for Chicago, hey, somehow they’re managing to win with Kyle Orton behind center.  I don’t get it, but I’ll roll with it.  Matt Forte was a real find and that defense is playing pretty well right now.

So that’s what I see happening this week in the NFL.  Hopefully there will be less surprises than last week held for me.  Happy viewing and I’ll be back with you for NFL Notes on Sunday or Monday.

Last Week:  10-6

Season Record:  143.5-79.5

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