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Archive for October 1st, 2008

Week 5 NFL Picks

I came back to earth last week, with an 8-5 record.  I’d like to pretend I would have done better had so many teams not been off, but let’s be honest.  I probably would have been 8-7 or 8-8.  What I learned last week is that you really can’t predict what will happen in conference play.  KC over Denver?  Skins over the Boys?  SD nearly losing to Oak…it’s just hard to beat those teams that know you best, even when you’re clearly better like in the case of Denver.  Except for that defense.  Peeee You!  On to the picks.

Carolina over KC: Alright KC, you got your token win.  Back down to earth this week playing against a team that actually fields a defense.  I know, it’s something totally new, but there you go.  When will Steve Smith actually haul off and punch someone during a game?  I think I would pay to see this.

Chicago over Detroit: The Matt Millenless Era should continue much the same way the Millen Era did.  After all, they’re still stuck with Millen’s draftees aren’t they?  The Bears continue to inexplicably win, despite having some homeless looking dude playing QB.  I can’t figure it out.

Green Bay over Atlanta: This pick subject to Aaron Rodgers availability of course, but I think I’d lean GB way either way.  They’re coming off a loss, rookie QB on the road…their defense worries me a bit but I think they’ll pull some turnovers and pull it out.

San Diego over Miami: I’m still not impressed with the Chargers, struggling to beat Oakland last week, but they’re playing Miami, who NE win aside, is still not very good.  I think they have a favorable schedule for the next few weeks to make their move and overtake Denver.

Giants over Seattle: Gotta go with the champs to win again.  Even without Plaxico, they still have about 20 more wide receivers than Seattle does, so that’s a bonus.  Seattle is just a nonentity this year, they scare nobody.  Should be an easy one (which means I’ll be totally wrong).

Philly over Washington: Another divisional match up, another tossup.  I’m going with Philly coming off a loss to Chicago and playing at home.  The Skins were impressive in Dallas and could easily knock off Philly, but I’m siding with the more desperate team. Congrats to DeSean Jackson for actually scoring last week by the  way!  He knows where the goal line is now!  Bravo!

Tennessee over Baltimore: Both of these teams could have been undefeated had Pitt not pulled it out on Monday night.  Who would have thought that?  This may be blasphemy and I may have to watch out for Ray Lewis’ posse when I say this, but I think Tenn’s defense is better than Balt’s.  Also they’re fielding the wily vet at QB while Balt is going with the rook.  Should be low scoring.

Indy over Houston: This could be a close game, Houston seems to get up for the divisional match ups, but I can’t see Indy going 1-3.  Houston sucks, though they took Jax to overtime last week.  Manning in a close one.

Denver over Tampa Bay: I’ve thought long and hard on this one all week.  And I really do think Tampa could take it.  When I pick against them, they tend to win, so I’m hoping to keep that trend going this week.  Denver’s O is formidable and their D is atrocious.  Tampa’s D is pretty formidable and their O is pretty bumbling but occasionally decent.  I don’t know what to think of any of this, going with Denver in the hopes of cursing them.

Buffalo over Arizona: Can the Bills go 5-0?  Why not?  Zona will probably be without Boldin this weekend, which hurts, and their defense gave up 56 points (though some of that is on Kurt Warner).  Arizona is still an underachiever by all accounts.  They could still take their terrible division, or they could lay down and die like they do every year.  We’ll see.

NE over SF: It’ll be interesting to see how the Pats respond to their beatdown from 2 weeks ago.  They’ve had a break and time to regroup.  I don’t think much of San Fran, so NE is the pick.

Dallas over Cincy: Another winless team stays Ofer this weekend!  This is an easy call.  Dallas coming off a loss, playing at home, against a terrible team.  Lock of the week.  Bonus points if Romo punishes TO by not throwing to him once and he has a tantrum on the sidelines.  Is this too much to ask?

Jax over Pittsburgh: Pitt is very beat up.  Jacksonville has rediscovered their running game.  They’re playing in Jax.  This should be low scoring but I’ll go with the Jags.  This is a weird year.

New Orleans over Minnesota: Man, the Vikings are gonna start the season 1-4 aren’t they?  I had them winning their division (til I revised my picks this week, hehe!).  What a shame.  Minny should have done whatever they could to acquire a QB.  Why they haven’t contacted Tampa about Garcia is beyond me.  The Saints get it done, though Adrian Peterson should gash them for some big runs.

Last Week: 8-5

Season Record: 34-25

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